BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pinyon Jay Population Trend in Utah

All statesForest birds

Pinyon Jay in Utah has edged down: down 15% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-15%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pinyon Jay Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pinyon Jay in Utah. See the full index history below.

Pinyon Jay Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Pinyon Jay in Utah is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 4.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pinyon Jay in Utah is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 4.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.70.0011
20273.60.0011
20283.60.0011
20293.50.0011
20303.40.0011

Pinyon Jay Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Pinyon Jay in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fayette5820251992
Pine Creek5020252000
Escalante4620251998
Gold Hill3020251987
Canyonlands2420251986
Bicknell2320191997
La Sal2019961996
Glen Canyon1920251991
Canyon Rims1520251999
Dragerton1420071968
Moon Lake1320021993
Leamington1220171993
La Sal 31220172007
Moquith Mtn1120251987
Canyonlands1020061991
Hite820251986
Dixie Nf820181995
Moon Lake 2820232004
Wellington 2720112003
Lynn620131986
Bonanza620121992
Bryce Canyon620251994
Alton 2620252023
Iron Springs520231980
Richfield520151994

Pinyon Jay Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.