BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pinyon Jay Population Trend in Utah

All statesGeneralists

Pinyon Jay in Utah has edged down: down 18% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-18%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pinyon Jay Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pinyon Jay in Utah. See the full index history below.

Pinyon Jay Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Pinyon Jay in Utah is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±51.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pinyon Jay in Utah is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 0.00–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±51.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.70.0011
20263.60.0011
20273.60.0011
20283.50.0011
20293.40.0011

Pinyon Jay Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Pinyon Jay in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Canyonlands6620241986
Glen Canyon4020241991
Escalante3820241998
Wellington 33520242012
Canyon Rims2920241999
Bicknell2320191997
Fayette2220211992
Desert View2020241987
La Sal2019961996
Hite1520211986
Dragerton1420071968
Moon Lake1320021993
Book Ridge1320242003
Newcastle1320211997
Leamington1220171993
Monticello1220241998
La Sal 31220172007
Alton 21220232023
Canyonlands1020061991
Boulder920211968
Dixie Nf820181995
Moon Lake 2820232004
Beryl720241987
Wellington 2720112003
Lynn620131986

Pinyon Jay Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.