BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pinyon Jay Population Trend in Oregon

All statesGeneralists

Pinyon Jay in Oregon has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-2%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pinyon Jay Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pinyon Jay in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Pinyon Jay Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Pinyon Jay in Oregon is projected to fall about 75% by 2029 — from 0.51 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.95). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-75%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±77.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pinyon Jay in Oregon is projected to fall about 75% by 2029 — from 0.51 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.95). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.150.000.98
20260.140.000.97
20270.140.000.97
20280.130.000.96
20290.120.000.95

Pinyon Jay Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Pinyon Jay in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Deschutes2720241968
Catlow Rim1520142014
Sisters1520241999
Crooked Riv.1220222022
Green Mtn.520021995
Bald Mtn.320242024
Bly 2220242016
Summit Pr219841984
Donnybrook219971997
Davis Lake220082008
Bly220012001
Lapham Res.120011992
Madras120031997
Clover Creek119771977
Silver Creek119961996

Pinyon Jay Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananebraskanevadanew-mexicosouth-dakotautahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.