BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pinyon Jay Population Trend in Nevada

All statesGeneralists

Pinyon Jay in Nevada has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-64%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pinyon Jay Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pinyon Jay has fallen sharply in Nevada: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Pinyon Jay Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Pinyon Jay in Nevada is projected to fall about 71% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 0.00–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±116.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-71%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±116.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pinyon Jay in Nevada is projected to fall about 71% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 0.00–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±116.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.60.0017
20263.50.0017
20273.30.0017
20283.20.0017
20293.10.0016

Pinyon Jay Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Pinyon Jay in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Toiyabe Nf19520241987
Illipah16320211968
Cortez7820241968
Gardnerville2220051992
Sutcliffe2019711968
Desert Nwr1920161990
Dobbin Creek1720181968
Willis1620241988
Alamo1619721968
Ruby Valley 21120162004
Ranchogrande920161990
Mizpah920241988
Gardnerville 2920182018
Walker Can620231968
Comins Lake520162008
Caliente520191988
Majors Place420191968
Ruby Valley420012001
Austin320182008
Minerva220181988
Hiko220041973
Eureka120241968
Jean Lake120091991
Hawthorne119991997
Darroughs Hot Spgs120022002

Pinyon Jay Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananebraskanew-mexicooregonsouth-dakotautahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.