BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pinyon Jay Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGeneralists

Pinyon Jay in New Mexico has fallen sharply: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-60%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pinyon Jay Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pinyon Jay has fallen sharply in New Mexico: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Pinyon Jay Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Pinyon Jay in New Mexico is projected to fall about 37% by 2029 — from 5.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 0.00–9.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-37%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–9.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±73.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pinyon Jay in New Mexico is projected to fall about 37% by 2029 — from 5.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 0.00–9.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.90.009.9
20263.80.009.8
20273.70.009.8
20283.60.009.7
20293.60.009.6

Pinyon Jay Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Pinyon Jay in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Salt Lake 26320242002
Aztec5319891988
Salt Lake4820011999
Quemado4419971992
Mountainair3720241993
Fence Lake3020241975
Carrizozo2920241968
Claunch 22820242001
Capulin2119931993
Claunch2020001977
Pecos1720171973
Mt. Taylor 21620242014
Reserve1520231993
Horse Spgs1420241975
Horse Mtn1420241968
Ojo Sarco1319841969
Torreon1320241975
Stinking Lk.1219981998
Crownpoint819921969
Magdalena620241997
Mt. Taylor620121993
La Plata620121990
Cebolla520061977
Gallo Arroyo520022002
Counselor420241992

Pinyon Jay Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.