BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pinyon Jay Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesForest birds

Pinyon Jay in South Dakota has declined: down 42% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-42%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pinyon Jay Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pinyon Jay in South Dakota. See the full index history below.

Pinyon Jay Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Pinyon Jay in South Dakota is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.74). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±99.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pinyon Jay in South Dakota is projected to fall about 16% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.74). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.120.000.77
20270.110.000.76
20280.100.000.76
20290.100.000.75
20300.090.000.74

Pinyon Jay Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Pinyon Jay in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Roubaix Lk1019891968
Custer620132013
Pleasant Val320071992
Wind Cave Np320252012
Hazelrodt120051995
Elk Mountain119971992

Pinyon Jay Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.