BirdAnalyst
Species · Wyoming · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pinyon Jay Population Trend in Wyoming

All statesGeneralists

Pinyon Jay in Wyoming has collapsed: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-87%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Pinyon Jay Trends in WyomingNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pinyon Jay has collapsed in Wyoming: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Pinyon Jay Population Forecast in Wyoming

If the recent trend holds, Pinyon Jay in Wyoming is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±154.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±154.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pinyon Jay in Wyoming is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.64). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±154.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.110.000.68
20260.100.000.67
20270.090.000.66
20280.080.000.65
20290.070.000.64

Pinyon Jay Survey Routes in Wyoming

Routes recording Pinyon Jay in Wyoming.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Recluse3519831981
Mayoworth3019921989
Anchor1820161993
Rock Springs1220131977
Lovell920191989
Teapot Dome919831983
Piney519811981
Ervay420091978
Carter420062006
Baggs420212002
Brookhurst320002000
Meeteetse320241991
Meadowdale319841984
Diamondville319801978
Sundance219751975
Clark220172002
Gebo220231994
Bucknum220242024
Nowood120241996
Natrona119911991
Seely 2120022001
Cumberland119801978
Soda Well120151983
Lysite119941989
Sand Draw120132013

Pinyon Jay Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananebraskanevadanew-mexicooregonsouth-dakotautah

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.