BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pinyon Jay Population Analysis

CorvidaeForest birdsGymnorhinus cyanocephalus

Pinyon Jay has declined: down 40% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-40%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
332RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Pinyon Jay

The Pinyon Jay (Gymnorhinus cyanocephalus) is a North American member of the Crows, Jays & Magpies (Corvidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
10–27.5 in long (25–70 cm) — a medium to large songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 332 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 12 states, most concentrated in the Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Family
Corvidae · Forest birds

Notable Pinyon Jay TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pinyon Jay. See the full index history below.

Pinyon Jay Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pinyon Jay is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 0.37 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.44 (95% range 0.04–0.84). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.44Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.8495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pinyon Jay is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 0.37 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.44 (95% range 0.04–0.84). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.440.040.84
20270.440.040.84
20280.440.040.84
20290.440.040.84
20300.440.040.84

Where the Pinyon Jay Is Detected

BBS routes recording Pinyon Jay, sized by most recent count.

Pinyon Jay Population Trend by State

Pinyon Jay population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizona-93%197029
California+25%197034
Colorado+355%197156
Idahoinsufficient datan/a2
Montana-90%197115
Nebraskainsufficient datan/a1
Nevada-63%197025
New Mexico-60%197042
Oregon-17%197115
South Dakota-42%19726
Utah-15%197079
Wyoming-85%197828

Pinyon Jay Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Pinyon Jay population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Great Basin-72%197066
Northern Rockies+64%197132
Sierra Nevada+7%19875
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau-79%1970156
Badlands and Prairies-72%197127
Shortgrass Prairie-68%198110
Coastal California-7%19728
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts-76%197012
Sierra Madre Occidental-57%197012
Chihuahuan Desert-84%19774

Pinyon Jay Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 40% since 1970.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.