BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pinyon Jay In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Pinyon Jay in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-79%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
156Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pinyon Jay has collapsed in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Pinyon Jay In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pinyon Jay in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 79% by 2030 — from 4.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.88 (95% range 0.00–8.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-79%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.88Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pinyon Jay in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 79% by 2030 — from 4.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.88 (95% range 0.00–8.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.60.009.1
20271.40.008.9
20281.30.008.7
20291.10.008.6
20300.880.008.4

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Pinyon Jay in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GuffeyCOLORADO1372025
House RockARIZONA1132022
FayetteUTAH582025
AztecNEW-MEXICO531989
YampaiARIZONA501977
Salt LakeNEW-MEXICO482001
EscalanteUTAH462025
QuemadoNEW-MEXICO441997
DinosaurCOLORADO382025
MountainairNEW-MEXICO372024
Mt TrumbullARIZONA341993
TsaileARIZONA302023
BufordCOLORADO281995
Claunch 2NEW-MEXICO282024
SummitvilleCOLORADO252025
SeligmanARIZONA242025
CanyonlandsUTAH242025
BicknellUTAH232019
Baxter PassCOLORADO222024
CapulinNEW-MEXICO211993
Castle ButteARIZONA202025
Wet Mtns.COLORADO202025
Fence LakeNEW-MEXICO202025
ClaunchNEW-MEXICO202000
La SalUTAH201996

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.