BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pinyon Jay In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Pinyon Jay in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has collapsed: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-80%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
155Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pinyon Jay has collapsed in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Pinyon Jay In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pinyon Jay in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 84% by 2029 — from 5.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.86 (95% range 0.00–8.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-84%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.86Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pinyon Jay in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 84% by 2029 — from 5.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.86 (95% range 0.00–8.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.60.009.2
20261.40.009.0
20271.30.008.8
20281.10.008.6
20290.860.008.4

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Pinyon Jay in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
House RockARIZONA1132022
GuffeyCOLORADO852024
CanyonlandsUTAH662024
Salt Lake 2NEW-MEXICO632024
AztecNEW-MEXICO531989
YampaiARIZONA501977
Wray GulchCOLORADO492023
Salt LakeNEW-MEXICO482001
ToroweapARIZONA452024
QuemadoNEW-MEXICO441997
Glen CanyonUTAH402024
EscalanteUTAH382024
MountainairNEW-MEXICO372024
Wellington 3UTAH352024
Mt TrumbullARIZONA341993
TsaileARIZONA302023
Fence LakeNEW-MEXICO302024
Canyon RimsUTAH292024
BufordCOLORADO281995
Claunch 2NEW-MEXICO282024
BicknellUTAH232019
Baxter PassCOLORADO222024
FayetteUTAH222021
CapulinNEW-MEXICO211993
ClaunchNEW-MEXICO202000

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.