BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pinyon Jay In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGeneralists

Pinyon Jay in Great Basin has fallen sharply: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-72%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pinyon Jay has fallen sharply in Great Basin: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Pinyon Jay In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pinyon Jay in Great Basin is projected to fall about 45% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.00–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pinyon Jay in Great Basin is projected to fall about 45% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.00–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.60.004.4
20261.50.004.4
20271.50.004.3
20281.50.004.3
20291.50.004.3

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Pinyon Jay in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Toiyabe NfNEVADA1952024
IllipahNEVADA1632021
CortezNEVADA782024
Crowley LakeCALIFORNIA372004
DeschutesOREGON272024
Deep SpringsCALIFORNIA222012
GardnervilleNEVADA222005
SutcliffeNEVADA201971
Desert NwrNEVADA192016
Dobbin CreekNEVADA172018
WillisNEVADA162024
BridgeportCALIFORNIA151974
Catlow RimOREGON152014
SistersOREGON152024
BentonCALIFORNIA132024
NewcastleUTAH132021
Crooked Riv.OREGON122022
LeamingtonUTAH122017
Ruby Valley 2NEVADA112016
RanchograndeNEVADA92016
MizpahNEVADA92024
Gardnerville 2NEVADA92018
PocatelloIDAHO82015
BodieCALIFORNIA72024
BerylUTAH72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.