BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pinyon Jay In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesForest birds

Pinyon Jay in Badlands and Prairies has fallen sharply: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-72%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pinyon Jay has fallen sharply in Badlands and Prairies: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Pinyon Jay In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pinyon Jay in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±251.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.02Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±251.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pinyon Jay in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.02 (95% range 0.00–0.49). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±251.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.050.000.52
20270.040.000.52
20280.040.000.51
20290.030.000.50
20300.020.000.49

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Pinyon Jay in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RecluseWYOMING351983
MayoworthWYOMING301992
Roubaix LkSOUTH-DAKOTA101989
Reed PointMONTANA92019
Teapot DomeWYOMING91983
Custer 2MONTANA82024
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA62013
Two DotMONTANA51996
PineyWYOMING51981
BrusettMONTANA31989
Pleasant ValSOUTH-DAKOTA32007
Wind Cave NpSOUTH-DAKOTA32025
MeadowdaleWYOMING31984
JordanMONTANA22011
ForsythMONTANA22008
BrandenbergMONTANA22006
SundanceWYOMING21975
BucknumWYOMING22024
LeroyMONTANA12013
ShawmutMONTANA12018
Bull Mtn.MONTANA12016
Elk MountainSOUTH-DAKOTA11997
HazelrodtSOUTH-DAKOTA12005
NatronaWYOMING11991
Soda WellWYOMING12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.