BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pinyon Jay In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Pinyon Jay in Badlands and Prairies has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-63%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pinyon Jay has fallen sharply in Badlands and Prairies: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Pinyon Jay In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pinyon Jay in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 84% by 2029 — from 0.20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±238.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-84%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±238.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pinyon Jay in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 84% by 2029 — from 0.20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±238.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.060.000.53
20260.050.000.53
20270.050.000.52
20280.040.000.52
20290.030.000.51

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Pinyon Jay in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RecluseWYOMING351983
MayoworthWYOMING301992
Roubaix LkSOUTH-DAKOTA101989
Reed PointMONTANA92019
Teapot DomeWYOMING91983
Custer 2MONTANA82024
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA62013
Two DotMONTANA51996
PineyWYOMING51981
Wind Cave NpSOUTH-DAKOTA42024
BrusettMONTANA31989
Pleasant ValSOUTH-DAKOTA32007
MeadowdaleWYOMING31984
JordanMONTANA22011
ForsythMONTANA22008
BrandenbergMONTANA22006
SundanceWYOMING21975
BucknumWYOMING22024
LeroyMONTANA12013
ShawmutMONTANA12018
Bull Mtn.MONTANA12016
Elk MountainSOUTH-DAKOTA11997
HazelrodtSOUTH-DAKOTA12005
NatronaWYOMING11991
Soda WellWYOMING12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.