BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pinyon Jay In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

Pinyon Jay in Sierra Madre Occidental has declined: down 46% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-46%Since 1970
12Routes In Region
48Years

Notable Signals

No notable trend signals for Pinyon Jay in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pinyon Jay in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 57% by 2029 — from 0.78 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+57%Change by 2029
1.2Projected 2029 index
0.00–4.895% range
±69.9%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.30.005.0
20261.30.004.9
20271.30.004.9
20281.20.004.9
20291.20.004.8

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Pinyon Jay in Sierra Madre Occidental.
FlagstaffARIZONA232022
ReserveNEW-MEXICO152023
BlueARIZONA81991
Mormon LakeARIZONA61975
WilliamsARIZONA62017
SprucedaleARIZONA61998
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO62024
MaineARIZONA42024
Forest LakesARIZONA42024
Clay SpringARIZONA22014
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO22008
PinetopARIZONA12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.