BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pinyon Jay In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaGeneralists

Pinyon Jay in Coastal California has held roughly steady: down 7% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-7%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Pinyon Jay in Coastal California. See the full index history below.

Pinyon Jay In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pinyon Jay in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.46 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±143.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.46Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±143.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pinyon Jay in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.46 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±143.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.450.001.1
20260.450.001.1
20270.460.001.1
20280.460.001.1
20290.460.001.1

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Pinyon Jay in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WoodlandsCALIFORNIA202024
AnzaCALIFORNIA151976
Lockwood ValCALIFORNIA52003
Lake HemetCALIFORNIA41986
Mt PinosCALIFORNIA31994
Big BearCALIFORNIA21979
Green ValleyCALIFORNIA22022
Anza 2CALIFORNIA22017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.