BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pinyon Jay In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Pinyon Jay in Shortgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

-68%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pinyon Jay has fallen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

Pinyon Jay In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pinyon Jay in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 15% by 2026 — from 0.15 in 2021 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±756.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±756.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pinyon Jay in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 15% by 2026 — from 0.15 in 2021 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±756.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.140.000.59
20230.140.000.58
20240.140.000.58
20250.130.000.58
20260.130.000.57

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Pinyon Jay in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NinaviewCOLORADO172001
TrincheraCOLORADO62021
Cone MtnCOLORADO52021
VillegreenCOLORADO32017
FarleyNEW-MEXICO31997
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO32016
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO22021
Mica ButteCOLORADO11986
CrawfordNEBRASKA12005
Wagon MoundNEW-MEXICO11973

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.