BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pinyon Jay In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Pinyon Jay in Shortgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

-68%Since 1981
10Routes In Region
39Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Pinyon Jay has fallen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pinyon Jay in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 15% by 2026 — from 0.15 in 2021 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.00–0.57). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±756.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2026
0.13Projected 2026 index
0.00–0.5795% range
±756.4%Backtest error
19712026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20220.140.000.59
20230.140.000.58
20240.140.000.58
20250.130.000.58
20260.130.000.57

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Pinyon Jay in Shortgrass Prairie.
NinaviewCOLORADO172001
TrincheraCOLORADO62021
Cone MtnCOLORADO52021
VillegreenCOLORADO32017
FarleyNEW-MEXICO31997
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO32016
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO22021
Mica ButteCOLORADO11986
CrawfordNEBRASKA12005
Wagon MoundNEW-MEXICO11973

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.