BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Pinyon Jay In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesForest birds

Pinyon Jay in Northern Rockies has risen sharply: up 64% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+64%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Pinyon Jay has risen sharply in Northern Rockies: up 64% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Pinyon Jay In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pinyon Jay in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 52% by 2030 — from 0.23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.91). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±368.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+52%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±368.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Pinyon Jay in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 52% by 2030 — from 0.23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.91). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±368.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.350.000.92
20270.350.000.92
20280.340.000.92
20290.340.000.91
20300.340.000.91

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Pinyon Jay in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LayCOLORADO182025
AnchorWYOMING182016
Rock SpringsWYOMING122013
Willow CreekMONTANA111980
LovellWYOMING62025
NowoodWYOMING52025
Willow Creek 2MONTANA42021
ErvayWYOMING42009
BaggsWYOMING42021
CarterWYOMING42006
Browns ParkCOLORADO32025
MeeteetseWYOMING32024
DiamondvilleWYOMING31980
MaybellCOLORADO22024
BoulderMONTANA22023
LaurelMONTANA22022
Summit PrOREGON21984
DonnybrookOREGON21997
WoodruffUTAH22010
ClarkWYOMING22017
GeboWYOMING22025
Great DivideCOLORADO12004
Pryor Mtn.MONTANA12019
Clover CreekOREGON11977
Silver CreekOREGON11996

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.