BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Pinyon Jay In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Pinyon Jay in Chihuahuan Desert has collapsed: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

-81%Since 1977
4Routes In Region
40Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Pinyon Jay has collapsed in Chihuahuan Desert: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Pinyon Jay in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±459.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–4.295% range
±459.5%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.000.004.2
20260.000.004.2
20270.000.004.2
20280.000.004.2
20290.000.004.2

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Pinyon Jay in Chihuahuan Desert.
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO292024
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO11977
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO12017
PinonNEW-MEXICO12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.