BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Juniper Titmouse Population Trend in Arizona

All statesForest birds

Juniper Titmouse in Arizona has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-57%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Juniper Titmouse Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Juniper Titmouse has fallen sharply in Arizona: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Juniper Titmouse Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Juniper Titmouse in Arizona is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 0.86 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.64 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.64Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Juniper Titmouse in Arizona is projected to fall about 25% by 2029 — from 0.86 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.64 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.660.001.7
20260.660.001.7
20270.650.001.7
20280.650.001.7
20290.640.001.7

Juniper Titmouse Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Juniper Titmouse in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Zeniff3519841968
Pinetop1420221993
Forest Lakes1120241992
Yampai819761973
Skull Valley820231996
Black Mesa719951988
Rose Wells719691968
Mormon Lake719741968
Peach Spring720242005
Seligman620242005
Carr Mtn520141990
Sunizona419751974
Cow Springs420221996
Tonto Vill.420141995
Clay Spring420241988
House Rock320221968
Hunt320181969
Williams320192001
Sprucedale320221993
Portal220231979
Sawmill219891989
Aztec Peak219781974
Blue219911974
Redington220171994
Tsaile220222018

Juniper Titmouse Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.