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Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-chinned Hummingbird Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Black-chinned Hummingbird in Arizona has fallen sharply: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-69%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-chinned Hummingbird Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-chinned Hummingbird has fallen sharply in Arizona: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Black-chinned Hummingbird Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Arizona is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.00–0.90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±109.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.43Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±109.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Arizona is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 0.31 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.43 (95% range 0.00–0.90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±109.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.450.000.92
20260.440.000.92
20270.440.000.91
20280.430.000.91
20290.430.000.90

Black-chinned Hummingbird Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Black-chinned Hummingbird in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mormon Lake419741968
Cutter 2420182015
Toroweap420191994
Skull Valley420151996
The Gap319691968
Rucker320091993
Pomerene320241968
Patagonia320241968
Cutter320141993
Cabeza Priet320232023
House Rock219681968
Portal220221975
Dragoon220091993
Rose Wells219691968
Oatman220031992
Prescott220191975
Hunt220061976
Palo Verde 2220172014
Forest Lakes220241995
Cibola Lake220191993
Palo Verde220111992
Redington220211993
Willow Beach 2220212016
Mcneal220212003
Clay Spring220142009

Black-chinned Hummingbird Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicooklahomaoregontexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.