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Species · California · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-chinned Hummingbird Population Trend in California

All statesForest birds

Black-chinned Hummingbird in California has declined: down 46% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-46%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
92Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-chinned Hummingbird Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-chinned Hummingbird in California. See the full index history below.

Black-chinned Hummingbird Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±171.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±171.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±171.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.100.000.24
20270.100.000.24
20280.100.000.24
20290.100.000.24
20300.100.000.24

Black-chinned Hummingbird Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Black-chinned Hummingbird in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pennington820151984
Joshua Tree420001994
Lake Cachuma420141976
Carmel Val320131973
Oroville320251974
Cleveland Nf319991994
Horse Creek220002000
Gravesboro219861975
Onyx219941994
Foster Park219931981
Oak Grove219951976
San Ysidro219901987
Inyokern219911991
Shasta Lake219971974
Orland220221996
Blythe219791979
Sawmill Mtn220141976
Tujunga220151975
Fallsvale219811974
Lockwood Val219961996
Mt Laguna219871973
Anza219951974
Sanger220142014
Westley220231990
Cal Hot Spgs220132007

Black-chinned Hummingbird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.