BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-chinned Hummingbird Population Trend in California

All statesGeneralists

Black-chinned Hummingbird in California has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-52%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
91Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-chinned Hummingbird Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-chinned Hummingbird has fallen sharply in California: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Black-chinned Hummingbird Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in California is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±248.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±248.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in California is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 0.12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±248.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.100.000.24
20260.100.000.24
20270.100.000.24
20280.100.000.24
20290.100.000.24

Black-chinned Hummingbird Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Black-chinned Hummingbird in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pennington820151984
Elsinore Mtn720241970
Joshua Tree420001994
Lake Cachuma420141976
Oroville420241974
Carmel Val320131973
Cleveland Nf319991994
Horse Creek220002000
Gravesboro219861975
Onyx219941994
Foster Park219931981
Oak Grove219951976
San Ysidro219901987
Inyokern219911991
Shasta Lake219971974
Orland220221996
Blythe219791979
Sawmill Mtn220141976
Tujunga220151975
Fallsvale219811974
Lockwood Val219961996
Mt Laguna219871973
Anza219951974
Sanger220142014
Westley220231990

Black-chinned Hummingbird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.