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Species · Oklahoma · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-chinned Hummingbird Population Trend in Oklahoma

All statesForest birds

Black-chinned Hummingbird in Oklahoma has surged: up 218% on the route-weighted index since 2004.

+218%Since 2004TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
20YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-chinned Hummingbird Trends in OklahomaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-chinned Hummingbird in Oklahoma. See the full index history below.

Black-chinned Hummingbird Population Forecast in Oklahoma

If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.03–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Oklahoma is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 0.11 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.03–0.17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19992030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.090.010.16
20270.090.020.16
20280.090.020.17
20290.100.020.17
20300.100.030.17

Black-chinned Hummingbird Survey Routes in Oklahoma

Routes recording Black-chinned Hummingbird in Oklahoma.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wichita Mtns East220252004
Tatums220142007
Arapaho220122009
Felt120182012
Woodward120242024
Wichita Mts West120252014
Eagle City120001999
Grimes120142014
Cooperton120222014
Sickles120122005

Black-chinned Hummingbird Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicooregontexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.