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Species · Colorado · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-chinned Hummingbird Population Trend in Colorado

All statesGeneralists

Black-chinned Hummingbird in Colorado has risen sharply: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+68%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-chinned Hummingbird Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-chinned Hummingbird has risen sharply in Colorado: up 68% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Black-chinned Hummingbird Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Colorado is projected to rise about 69% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.07–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+69%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.07–0.3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±90.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Colorado is projected to rise about 69% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.07–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.220.070.37
20260.220.070.37
20270.220.070.37
20280.220.070.38
20290.230.070.38

Black-chinned Hummingbird Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Black-chinned Hummingbird in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Baxter Pass520161996
Rosevale320242009
Animas 2320182006
Maybell220212006
Mesaverde Np220241997
Falfa220241972
Ragged Mtn.220161994
Browns Park220221993
Tincup220052005
Wet Mtns.219941994
Rifle Falls220191998
Cortez220081988
Douglas Pass120241982
Buford120231980
Delta120211975
Dolores119871974
Mica Butte119871987
Wray Gulch120171995
Wilson Creek120192019
Doyle Bridge 2120162016
Fruita120071989
Cortez 2120162009
Mesita120212021
Dinosaur120141997
Dolores Riv120222001

Black-chinned Hummingbird Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniaidahomontananevadanew-mexicooklahomaoregontexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.