BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-chinned Hummingbird Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGeneralists

Black-chinned Hummingbird in New Mexico has risen sharply: up 57% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+57%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
58Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-chinned Hummingbird Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-chinned Hummingbird has risen sharply in New Mexico: up 57% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Black-chinned Hummingbird Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in New Mexico is projected to rise about 44% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.17–0.77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+44%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.47Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–0.7795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±82.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in New Mexico is projected to rise about 44% by 2029 — from 0.33 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.47 (95% range 0.17–0.77). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±82.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.450.150.76
20260.460.150.76
20270.460.160.76
20280.470.160.77
20290.470.170.77

Black-chinned Hummingbird Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Black-chinned Hummingbird in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mesilla1320001992
Laborcita520191992
Laborcita 2420242022
La Plata420131991
Red Rock420241993
La Cienega320221972
Valencia319971970
La Plata 2320162014
Capitan Mtn.320162013
Emory Pass320231993
Bluewater Lake320212021
Nageesi220041971
Farley220242024
Wagon Mound219741974
Carrizozo220241994
Cloudcroft219821975
Counselor220152005
Pastura220081994
Escondida220231998
Lake Valley220061981
Farmington119811977
Cebolla120151973
Grenville120112011
Crownpoint119941994
Pecos120171980

Black-chinned Hummingbird Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.