BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-chinned Hummingbird Population Trend in Washington

All statesGeneralists

Black-chinned Hummingbird in Washington has held roughly steady: up 1% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+1%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-chinned Hummingbird Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-chinned Hummingbird in Washington. See the full index history below.

Black-chinned Hummingbird Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.13 (95% range 0.01–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±102.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±102.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.13 (95% range 0.01–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±102.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.000.24
20260.120.000.24
20270.120.000.25
20280.130.010.25
20290.130.010.25

Black-chinned Hummingbird Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Black-chinned Hummingbird in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Laurier620222000
Columbia Nwr320222018
Chewelah220191980
Tonasket220012001
Nighthawk220231992
Curlew220131993
Twisp120191971
Brewster120032003
Keller120041970
Turnbull Nwr120191998
L Pend O Nwr120222011
Reardan120111970
Rimrock120112011
Wapato120182018
Asotin120012001
Winthrop120141983
Cusick120221991
Ewan120022002
Ellensburg120242008
Spring Lake120231985
Carlton119951995
Richland120072007
Waitsburg120042004
Mazama120172000
Omak Creek120242007

Black-chinned Hummingbird Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicooklahomaoregontexasutahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.