BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-chinned Hummingbird Population Trend in Idaho

All statesGeneralists

Black-chinned Hummingbird in Idaho has surged: up 148% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

+148%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-chinned Hummingbird Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-chinned Hummingbird has surged in Idaho: up 148% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Black-chinned Hummingbird Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Idaho is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 0.48 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.05–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-54%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.22Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Idaho is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 0.48 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.05–0.39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.210.040.38
20260.210.040.38
20270.210.040.38
20280.220.050.39
20290.220.050.39

Black-chinned Hummingbird Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Black-chinned Hummingbird in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Magic Mtn820241997
Cedar Hill320242010
Featherville320232002
Naples220221975
Centerville220032003
Gifford120091997
Silver City120242019
Preston120142014
Rochat Divde120021998
Joel120232015
Cabarton119931986
Alturas119851985
Crane Creek120072003
Triangle120061994
Pasadena Val120161991
Coolin120232002

Black-chinned Hummingbird Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradomontananevadanew-mexicooklahomaoregontexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.