BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-chinned Hummingbird Population Trend in Nevada

All statesGeneralists

Black-chinned Hummingbird in Nevada has surged: up 103% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

+103%Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-chinned Hummingbird Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-chinned Hummingbird has surged in Nevada: up 103% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

Black-chinned Hummingbird Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Nevada is projected to fall about 42% by 2027 — from 0.29 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-42%Change by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Nevada is projected to fall about 42% by 2027 — from 0.29 in 2022 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.34). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19722027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.160.000.34
20240.160.000.34
20250.160.000.34
20260.170.000.34
20270.170.000.34

Black-chinned Hummingbird Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Black-chinned Hummingbird in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ruby Valley419991999
Nelson320091995
Comins Lake320162009
Jean Lake220091992
Desert Nwr220182018
Fish Creek220192018
Hiko220221973
Val Of Fire220112011
Piute Mdws120172017
Jarbidge120151997
Ranchogrande120132013
Carson River120052005
Austin120152009
Meadow Vally120221996
Fallon120222022
Beatty120172006
Alamo119731972

Black-chinned Hummingbird Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananew-mexicooklahomaoregontexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.