BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-chinned Hummingbird Population Trend in Utah

All statesGeneralists

Black-chinned Hummingbird in Utah has declined: down 26% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-26%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-chinned Hummingbird Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-chinned Hummingbird in Utah. See the full index history below.

Black-chinned Hummingbird Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Utah is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.04–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.39Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.7395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Utah is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 0.32 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.04–0.73). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.380.030.72
20260.380.030.73
20270.380.040.73
20280.390.040.73
20290.390.040.73

Black-chinned Hummingbird Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Black-chinned Hummingbird in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ant Flat-Ogden Can720231994
Moon Lake 2520212004
Moon Lake420032002
Hanna420241998
Hardware Ranch420231994
Alton 2320242021
Gooseberry320221998
Shivwitz320231994
Ferron320172009
Newcastle320211998
Notom320241991
Main Canyon320181988
Wellington 3220192014
Altonah220151975
Book Ridge220232013
Desert View220191999
Glen Canyon220181998
Kamas220242010
Bicknell220172002
Bryce Canyon220211994
Jensen220242012
Delta220152015
Cleveland220182005
Neponset Res120092009
Lost Cr. Res120101996

Black-chinned Hummingbird Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicooklahomaoregontexaswashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.