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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-chinned Hummingbird Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Black-chinned Hummingbird in Texas has held roughly steady: down 8% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-8%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
112Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-chinned Hummingbird Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-chinned Hummingbird in Texas. See the full index history below.

Black-chinned Hummingbird Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Texas is projected to rise about 166% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.27–0.71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+166%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.49Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.27–0.7195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±69.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Texas is projected to rise about 166% by 2030 — from 0.18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.49 (95% range 0.27–0.71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.480.260.70
20270.480.260.70
20280.490.270.71
20290.490.270.71
20300.490.270.71

Black-chinned Hummingbird Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Black-chinned Hummingbird in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Duran1019991995
Utopia920241969
Lone Oak520221967
Glen Rose420181967
Leakey420231994
Canutillo420251995
Hawley420131994
Valley Spgs320251976
Post320191981
Eldorado320231983
Indian Mtn320251978
Kermit319941994
Presidio320132000
Allen Creek320241994
Whit Mtn.320191997
Ft. Davis320222009
Comanche320232000
Hobson220251968
Catarina219881988
E Georgetown219741970
Harper220251972
San Saba220231969
Osage220211968
Pear Valley220251972
Winchell220211971

Black-chinned Hummingbird Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicooklahomaoregonutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.