BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-chinned Hummingbird Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Black-chinned Hummingbird in Texas has increased: up 28% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+28%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
112Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-chinned Hummingbird Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Black-chinned Hummingbird in Texas. See the full index history below.

Black-chinned Hummingbird Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Texas is projected to rise about 120% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.31–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+120%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.52Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.31–0.7295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-chinned Hummingbird in Texas is projected to rise about 120% by 2029 — from 0.23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.31–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.500.290.71
20260.500.300.71
20270.510.300.71
20280.510.300.72
20290.520.310.72

Black-chinned Hummingbird Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Black-chinned Hummingbird in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Duran1019991995
Utopia920241969
Adamsville620231973
Boerne520241967
Lone Oak520221967
Shields 2520232004
Hondo420231969
Glen Rose420181967
Brite420221995
Leakey420231994
Montell420221997
Hawley420131994
Harper320241972
Pear Valley320231972
Selden320231968
Post320191981
Eldorado320231983
Indian Mtn320241978
Kermit319941994
Presidio320132000
Allen Creek320241994
Whit Mtn.320191997
Ft. Davis320222009
Comanche320232000
Hobson220191968

Black-chinned Hummingbird Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahomontananevadanew-mexicooklahomaoregonutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.