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Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Painted Redstart Population Trend in Arizona

All statesForest birds

Painted Redstart in Arizona has held roughly steady: up 3% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+3%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Painted Redstart Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Painted Redstart in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Painted Redstart Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Painted Redstart in Arizona is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 0.34 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.00–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.39Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±73.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Painted Redstart in Arizona is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 0.34 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.39 (95% range 0.00–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.410.000.87
20260.400.000.87
20270.400.000.86
20280.390.000.86
20290.390.000.86

Painted Redstart Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Painted Redstart in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Portal1020241980
Tonto Vill.520211992
Mt. Graham420231995
Aztec Peak319781974
Carr Mtn220241993
Rucker220091993
Prescott220221974
Williams220012001
Peña Blanca219941982
Patagonia120182018
Sunizona119971973
Alpine120232023
Sunizona 2120012001
Mormon Lake119741974
Sprucedale120222015

Painted Redstart Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.