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Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Painted Redstart Population Trend in Arizona

All statesForest birds

Painted Redstart in Arizona has surged: up 95% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+95%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Painted Redstart Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Painted Redstart has surged in Arizona: up 94% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Painted Redstart Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Painted Redstart in Arizona is projected to fall about 49% by 2030 — from 0.83 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.42 (95% range 0.00–0.90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-49%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.42Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±81.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Painted Redstart in Arizona is projected to fall about 49% by 2030 — from 0.83 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.42 (95% range 0.00–0.90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±81.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.430.000.91
20270.430.000.91
20280.430.000.91
20290.420.000.90
20300.420.000.90

Painted Redstart Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Painted Redstart in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tonto Vill.2020251992
Mt. Graham520251995
Portal420251980
Aztec Peak319781974
Carr Mtn220251993
Rucker220091993
Prescott220251974
Williams220012001
Peña Blanca219941982
Patagonia120182018
Sunizona119971973
Alpine120232023
Sunizona 2120012001
Mormon Lake119741974
Sprucedale120252015

Painted Redstart Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.