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Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-headed Grosbeak Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Black-headed Grosbeak in Arizona has surged: up 82% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+82%Since 1970
44Routes In State
56Years

Notable Black-headed Grosbeak Trends in Arizona

long arc increasecomputed index

Black-headed Grosbeak has surged in Arizona: up 82% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Black-headed Grosbeak Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Black-headed Grosbeak in Arizona is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.20–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029
2.4Projected 2029 index
0.20–4.695% range
±12.5%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20252.50.264.7
20262.50.254.7
20272.40.234.7
20282.40.214.7
20292.40.204.6

Black-headed Grosbeak Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Black-headed Grosbeak in Arizona.
Portal2020241975
Peña Blanca1720241977
Aztec Peak1319781974
Mt. Graham1320231995
Prescott1220221974
Flagstaff1120221988
Zeniff1019731968
Tsaile1020231995
Sprucedale1020231992
Dry Park920241992
Forest Lakes820241994
Rucker620091993
Pinetop620221993
Dragoon520091993
Patagonia520241968
Williams520191999
Redington520231999
Mormon Lake419751968
Cutter420142014
Yampai319711971
Hunt319761976
Pomerene320241974
Sunizona319971968
Carr Mtn320241985
The Gap219751975

Black-headed Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasmontananebraskanevadanew-mexiconorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.