BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-headed Grosbeak Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGeneralists

Black-headed Grosbeak in New Mexico has risen sharply: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+66%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
56Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-headed Grosbeak Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-headed Grosbeak has risen sharply in New Mexico: up 66% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Black-headed Grosbeak Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Black-headed Grosbeak in New Mexico is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 1.9–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–4.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-headed Grosbeak in New Mexico is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 1.9–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.21.84.6
20263.21.84.6
20273.21.94.6
20283.21.94.6
20293.31.94.6

Black-headed Grosbeak Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Black-headed Grosbeak in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cloudcroft5520241975
Angel Fire 21420242005
Mt. Taylor 21120242014
Gallinas1120241992
Ojo Sarco1020241968
Mcgaffey720231994
La Cienega620211970
Stinking Lk.619991992
Mt. Taylor620121993
Emory Pass620241993
Farmington519831975
Claunch520001978
Capitan Mtn.520171993
Pinon520241992
Aztec519891988
Fence Lake420241977
Reserve420231993
Mesilla420001992
Claunch 2420242001
Cebolla320231973
Torreon319781978
Pecos320171973
Capulin319931993
Horse Spgs320231990
Carrizozo320241968

Black-headed Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.