BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-headed Grosbeak Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Black-headed Grosbeak in Texas has fallen sharply: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-69%Since 1971
10Routes In State
51Years

Notable Black-headed Grosbeak Trends in Texas

long arc declinecomputed index

Black-headed Grosbeak has fallen sharply in Texas: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Black-headed Grosbeak Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Black-headed Grosbeak in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±141.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029
0.05Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.1495% range
±141.7%Backtest error
19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.050.000.15
20260.050.000.14
20270.050.000.14
20280.050.000.14
20290.050.000.14

Black-headed Grosbeak Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Black-headed Grosbeak in Texas.
Valentine319871969
Bear Mtn320241988
Chisos Basin220231996
Salt Flat220062006
Kingsville119691969
Sierra Blanc120022002
Ft. Davis120232004
Toyahvale120241997
Hot Springs119971997
Longfellow120222010

Black-headed Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.