BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Black-headed Grosbeak Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Black-headed Grosbeak in North Dakota has surged: up 352% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+352%Since 1972
22Routes In State
48Years

Notable Black-headed Grosbeak Trends in North Dakota

long arc increasecomputed index

Black-headed Grosbeak has surged in North Dakota: up 352% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Black-headed Grosbeak Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Black-headed Grosbeak in North Dakota is projected to rise about 22% by 2029 — from 0.22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.27 (95% range 0.03–0.51). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±69.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2029
0.27Projected 2029 index
0.03–0.5195% range
±69.2%Backtest error
19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.260.020.50
20260.260.030.50
20270.270.030.50
20280.270.030.51
20290.270.030.51

Black-headed Grosbeak Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Black-headed Grosbeak in North Dakota.
Tobacco420191979
Ft Yates320041970
Douglas Crk320241982
Bentley220011989
Solen220242005
Carson119891989
Regan120181972
Dickinson120222017
Dunn Center120161986
Carpio119931980
Stanley120231980
Lark119711971
Bowman120152005
Zap120241973
Gorham120031993
Roosevelt Pk120161982
Cedar Creek120191991
Golva120221989
Glen Ullin119971989
Powers Lake119801980
Parshall120061989
Braddock120142009

Black-headed Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

alaskaarizonacaliforniacoloradoidahokansasmontananebraskanevadanew-mexicooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotatexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.