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Species · Nebraska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Black-headed Grosbeak Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesForest birds

Black-headed Grosbeak in Nebraska has surged: up 233% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+233%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
22Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Black-headed Grosbeak Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Black-headed Grosbeak has surged in Nebraska: up 233% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Black-headed Grosbeak Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Black-headed Grosbeak in Nebraska is projected to rise about 45% by 2030 — from 0.38 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.08–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±223.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+45%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.56Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±223.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Black-headed Grosbeak in Nebraska is projected to rise about 45% by 2030 — from 0.38 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.08–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±223.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.530.051.0
20270.540.061.0
20280.540.071.0
20290.550.071.0
20300.560.081.0

Black-headed Grosbeak Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Black-headed Grosbeak in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brady1020251980
Pine Ridge820251999
Crawford420241980
Holbrook219901979
Hendley220252019
Agate 2120132007
Oglala Nat. Grass.120161999
Sumner120152015
Bartley120252003
Stratton119911991
Almeria120111992
Dalton120091970
Johnstown120231967
Agate119761972
Table120251980
Kimball120091996
Gordon120161996
Arthur120192019
Murray Lake120132013
Mullen119951995
Crookston120232019
Culbertson120252025

Black-headed Grosbeak Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.