Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Blue-throated Mountain-gem Population Trend in Arizona
Blue-throated Mountain-gem in Arizona has fallen sharply: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1979.
-50%Since 1979
5Routes In State
30Years
Notable Blue-throated Mountain-gem Trends in Arizona
long arc declinecomputed index
Blue-throated Mountain-gem has fallen sharply in Arizona: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1979.
Blue-throated Mountain-gem Population Forecast in Arizona
If the recent trend holds, Blue-throated Mountain-gem in Arizona is projected to fall about 64% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-64%Change by 2029
0.03Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.1395% range
±46.9%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| 2026 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| 2027 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| 2028 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| 2029 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
Blue-throated Mountain-gem Survey Routes in Arizona
| Portal | 3 | 2024 | 1977 |
| Rucker | 1 | 2008 | 1993 |
| Sunizona 2 | 1 | 2015 | 2015 |
| Mcneal | 1 | 1997 | 1997 |
| Peña Blanca | 1 | 2001 | 2001 |
Blue-throated Mountain-gem Population Trend in Other States
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.