Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Yellow-eyed Junco Population Trend in Arizona
Yellow-eyed Junco in Arizona has surged: up 209% on the route-weighted index since 1976.
+209%Since 1976
7Routes In State
43Years
Notable Yellow-eyed Junco Trends in Arizona
long arc increasecomputed index
Yellow-eyed Junco has surged in Arizona: up 209% on the route-weighted index since 1976.
Yellow-eyed Junco Population Forecast in Arizona
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-eyed Junco in Arizona is projected to rise about 646% by 2029 — from 0.34 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 0.00–5.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±359%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
+646%Change by 2029
2.6Projected 2029 index
0.00–5.195% range
±359%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2.4 | 0.00 | 5.0 |
| 2026 | 2.5 | 0.00 | 5.0 |
| 2027 | 2.5 | 0.00 | 5.1 |
| 2028 | 2.5 | 0.00 | 5.1 |
| 2029 | 2.6 | 0.00 | 5.1 |
Yellow-eyed Junco Survey Routes in Arizona
| Mt. Graham | 35 | 2023 | 1995 |
| Portal | 12 | 2024 | 1975 |
| Sunizona | 4 | 1979 | 1979 |
| Rucker | 4 | 2009 | 1993 |
| Carr Mtn | 2 | 2014 | 2001 |
| Sunizona 2 | 1 | 2006 | 2006 |
| Aztec Peak | 1 | 1974 | 1974 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.