BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bushtit Population Trend in Arizona

All statesForest birds

Bushtit in Arizona has edged down: down 13% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-13%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bushtit Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bushtit in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Bushtit Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Bushtit in Arizona is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.00–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bushtit in Arizona is projected to fall about 10% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.00–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.003.4
20271.40.003.3
20281.40.003.3
20291.40.003.3
20301.40.003.3

Bushtit Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Bushtit in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rose Wells2119691968
Tonto Vill.2020252001
Zeniff1719841984
Portal1120251975
House Rock1020221968
Redington1020231993
Clay Spring920251988
Dragoon820091993
Forest Lakes820251992
Aztec Peak719781974
San Simon720012001
Prescott620251974
Blue619901975
Toroweap620241994
Castle Butte619931993
Sprucedale620231992
Rucker520081993
Pomerene419961983
Cutter420141992
Carr Mtn420251985
Yampai319771976
Peña Blanca320221976
Patagonia320251969
Maine319971997
Pinetop320222017

Bushtit Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahonevadanew-mexicooregontexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.