BirdAnalyst
Species · Arizona · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bushtit Population Trend in Arizona

All statesGeneralists

Bushtit in Arizona has edged down: down 17% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-17%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bushtit Trends in ArizonaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bushtit in Arizona. See the full index history below.

Bushtit Population Forecast in Arizona

If the recent trend holds, Bushtit in Arizona is projected to rise about 142% by 2029 — from 0.57 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.00–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+142%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±88%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bushtit in Arizona is projected to rise about 142% by 2029 — from 0.57 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.00–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.003.4
20261.40.003.4
20271.40.003.4
20281.40.003.3
20291.40.003.3

Bushtit Survey Routes in Arizona

Routes recording Bushtit in Arizona.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Prescott3520221974
Rose Wells2119691968
Zeniff1719841984
Portal1120231975
House Rock1020221968
Tonto Vill.1020212001
Forest Lakes1020241992
Redington1020231993
Dragoon820091993
Aztec Peak719781974
San Simon720012001
Blue619901975
Patagonia620231969
Toroweap620241994
Castle Butte619931993
Sprucedale620231992
Rucker520081993
Pomerene419961983
Cutter420141992
Mt. Graham420212016
Yampai319771976
Peña Blanca320221976
Maine319971997
Pinetop320222017
Carr Mtn320241985

Bushtit Population Trend in Other States

californiacoloradoidahonevadanew-mexicooregontexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.