BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bushtit Population Trend in Oregon

All statesGeneralists

Bushtit in Oregon has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-79%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
72Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bushtit Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bushtit has collapsed in Oregon: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Bushtit Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Bushtit in Oregon is projected to fall about 57% by 2029 — from 0.73 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.31 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-57%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.31Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bushtit in Oregon is projected to fall about 57% by 2029 — from 0.73 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.31 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.380.001.4
20260.360.001.4
20270.350.001.4
20280.330.001.4
20290.310.001.4

Bushtit Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Bushtit in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Elkton2220241974
Tualatin1620241968
Ruch1620151996
Ochoco1220142014
Nicolai Mtn.1020241993
Mikkalo1020022001
Trout Creek820212017
Eagle Rock819771973
Mt Hood820141987
Fish Lake820211993
Cool Camp720012001
Emigrant Lake 2720192004
Hauser619801970
Wagontire620042004
Derby619901968
Alvord Lake620052005
Dayton620241975
Camp Sherman619831972
Madras520231997
Myrtle Grove520231997
Cinderella520241996
Scappoose420211995
Winberry420231968
Svensen419921990
Harlan420092006

Bushtit Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.