BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bushtit

AegithalidaeForest birdsPsaltriparus minimus

Bushtit has edged down: down 22% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-22%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
535RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Bushtit

The Bushtit (Psaltriparus minimus) is a North American member of the Bushtits (Aegithalidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the forest birds.

Size
4–4.5 in long (10–11 cm) — a tiny songbird (typical for the family)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects and spiders gleaned from foliage and bark, with seeds and berries in season.
Range
Recorded on 535 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 11 states, most concentrated in the Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Family
Aegithalidae · Forest birds

Notable Bushtit TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bushtit. See the full index history below.

Bushtit Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bushtit is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.23Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bushtit is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.23 (95% range 0.00–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.240.020.47
20260.240.010.47
20270.230.010.46
20280.230.000.46
20290.230.000.45

Where the Bushtit Is Detected

BBS routes recording Bushtit, sized by most recent count.

Bushtit Population Trend by State

Bushtit population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Arizona-17%197041
California-49%1970195
Colorado+261%198240
Idahoinsufficient datan/a3
Nevada-29%199320
New Mexico-12%197044
Oregon-79%197072
Texas+7%197235
Utah-50%198550
Washington-37%197032
Wyominginsufficient datan/a3

Bushtit Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Bushtit population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Pacific Rainforest-63%1970100
Great Basin-32%197082
Northern Rockies-70%197814
Sierra Nevada-71%197027
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau-45%1970120
Shortgrass Prairie+202%19865
Edwards Plateau-6%198012
Coastal California-50%1970106
Sonoran and Mojave Deserts-48%197111
Sierra Madre Occidental+10%197029
Chihuahuan Desert+3%197319

Bushtit Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it down about 22% since 1970.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.