BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bushtit In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsGeneralists

Bushtit in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has declined: down 48% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-48%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bushtit in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

Bushtit In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bushtit in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to fall about 56% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±170.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-56%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.12Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±170.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bushtit in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to fall about 56% by 2029 — from 0.27 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.12 (95% range 0.00–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±170.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.130.000.50
20260.130.000.49
20270.120.000.49
20280.120.000.49
20290.120.000.48

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Bushtit in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PearblossomCALIFORNIA82024
Kelso ValleyCALIFORNIA82023
Cutter 2ARIZONA22017
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA21977
Lone PineCALIFORNIA22004
Joshua TreeCALIFORNIA21995
Cholla Gard.CALIFORNIA22012
OnyxCALIFORNIA12015
BarstowCALIFORNIA11995
IvanpahCALIFORNIA11995
NelsonNEVADA11995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.