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Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bushtit In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

Bushtit in Sierra Madre Occidental has edged up: up 10% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+10%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
29Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bushtit in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Bushtit In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bushtit in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 112% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 0.00–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+112%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±89.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bushtit in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 112% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 0.00–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±89.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.20.006.8
20263.20.006.8
20273.20.006.8
20283.20.006.8
20293.20.006.8

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Bushtit in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PrescottARIZONA352022
PortalARIZONA112023
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA102021
Forest LakesARIZONA102024
RedingtonARIZONA102023
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO102024
DragoonARIZONA82009
Aztec PeakARIZONA71978
San SimonARIZONA72001
BlueARIZONA61990
PatagoniaARIZONA62023
SprucedaleARIZONA62023
RuckerARIZONA52008
PomereneARIZONA41996
CutterARIZONA42014
Mt. GrahamARIZONA42021
Peña BlancaARIZONA32022
MaineARIZONA31997
PinetopARIZONA32022
Carr MtnARIZONA32024
ReserveNEW-MEXICO32023
SunizonaARIZONA21997
Bartlett ResARIZONA22018
Sunizona 2ARIZONA22016
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.