BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bushtit In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaForest birds

Bushtit in Coastal California has declined: down 49% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-49%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
106Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bushtit in Coastal California. See the full index history below.

Bushtit In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bushtit in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.8 (95% range 2.3–9.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+0%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–9.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bushtit in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.8 (95% range 2.3–9.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.02.59.6
20276.02.49.5
20285.92.49.5
20295.92.39.4
20305.82.39.4

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Bushtit in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PowayCALIFORNIA961980
Morro BayCALIFORNIA812019
Foster ParkCALIFORNIA521994
Santa YnezCALIFORNIA352019
AuburnCALIFORNIA351980
JacksonCALIFORNIA301992
MoragaCALIFORNIA282025
Mt Pinos 2CALIFORNIA262021
Jofegan 2CALIFORNIA252025
ColmaCALIFORNIA241972
Cuyamaca PkCALIFORNIA242025
OrlandCALIFORNIA212022
Elsinore MtnCALIFORNIA212025
Orange CoveCALIFORNIA172016
StonyfordCALIFORNIA162018
San YsidroCALIFORNIA152019
SangerCALIFORNIA152024
Yokohl ValCALIFORNIA141997
FairfaxCALIFORNIA142024
ReddingCALIFORNIA141980
OnealsCALIFORNIA142024
CoalingaCALIFORNIA132014
Lake SuccessCALIFORNIA131996
Bartlett SpsCALIFORNIA132018
Tres Pinos 2CALIFORNIA132011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.