BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bushtit In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaGeneralists

Bushtit in Coastal California has fallen sharply: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-50%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
106Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bushtit in Coastal California. See the full index history below.

Bushtit In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bushtit in Coastal California is projected to fall about 10% by 2029 — from 6.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.9 (95% range 2.3–9.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–9.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bushtit in Coastal California is projected to fall about 10% by 2029 — from 6.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.9 (95% range 2.3–9.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.12.59.7
20266.02.49.6
20276.02.49.6
20285.92.39.5
20295.92.39.5

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Bushtit in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PowayCALIFORNIA961980
Morro BayCALIFORNIA812019
Foster ParkCALIFORNIA521994
Jofegan 2CALIFORNIA472024
Santa YnezCALIFORNIA352019
AuburnCALIFORNIA351980
JacksonCALIFORNIA301992
Elsinore MtnCALIFORNIA282024
Mt Pinos 2CALIFORNIA262021
CoyoteCALIFORNIA262024
AdelaidaCALIFORNIA252024
ColmaCALIFORNIA241972
OrlandCALIFORNIA212022
MoragaCALIFORNIA192024
Orange CoveCALIFORNIA172016
StonyfordCALIFORNIA162018
San YsidroCALIFORNIA152019
SangerCALIFORNIA152024
Yokohl ValCALIFORNIA141997
FairfaxCALIFORNIA142024
Carmel ValCALIFORNIA142024
Cuyamaca PkCALIFORNIA142024
ReddingCALIFORNIA141980
OnealsCALIFORNIA142024
CoalingaCALIFORNIA132014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.