BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bushtit Population Trend in Utah

All statesGeneralists

Bushtit in Utah has fallen sharply: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

-50%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bushtit Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bushtit has fallen sharply in Utah: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

Bushtit Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Bushtit in Utah is projected to fall about 82% by 2029 — from 0.93 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-82%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±80.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bushtit in Utah is projected to fall about 82% by 2029 — from 0.93 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±80.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.220.001.3
20260.210.001.3
20270.200.001.3
20280.180.001.3
20290.170.001.3

Bushtit Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Bushtit in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shivwitz2320241993
Navajo Lake2219691969
La Sal 21320062005
Canyonlands1020061995
Ferron1020092000
La Sal 31020242007
Fayette820061993
Fish Lake Nf820242000
Willow Creek620061997
Moab620241996
Main Canyon620151989
Arches Np520062005
Jericho Junction519971997
Oak City420052005
Dragerton419691969
Richfield420181996
Moquith Mtn420131987
Moon Lake 2320172017
Bryce Canyon320062006
Lynn320212021
Hatch320242000
Newcastle320221997
Alton320102000
Escalante320241998
Bullfrog Bay320042004

Bushtit Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahonevadanew-mexicooregontexaswashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.