BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bushtit Population Trend in Utah

All statesForest birds

Bushtit in Utah has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1985.

-47%Since 1985TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bushtit Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bushtit in Utah. See the full index history below.

Bushtit Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Bushtit in Utah is projected to fall about 74% by 2030 — from 0.79 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-74%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±95.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bushtit in Utah is projected to fall about 74% by 2030 — from 0.79 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.260.001.4
20270.250.001.4
20280.230.001.4
20290.220.001.3
20300.210.001.3

Bushtit Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Bushtit in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shivwitz2320241993
Navajo Lake2219691969
Fayette1820251993
La Sal 21320062005
Canyonlands1020061995
Ferron1020092000
Boulder920251974
Fish Lake Nf820242000
Notom820252025
Willow Creek620061997
Moab620241996
Main Canyon620151989
Arches Np520062005
Jericho Junction519971997
Oak City420052005
Dragerton419691969
Richfield420181996
Hatch420252000
La Sal 3420252007
Moquith Mtn420131987
Moon Lake 2320172017
Bryce Canyon320062006
Lynn320212021
Canyon Rims320252003
Alton320102000

Bushtit Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahonevadanew-mexicooregontexaswashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.