BirdAnalyst
Species · Colorado · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bushtit Population Trend in Colorado

All statesGeneralists

Bushtit in Colorado has surged: up 261% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

+261%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bushtit Trends in ColoradoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bushtit has surged in Colorado: up 261% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

Bushtit Population Forecast in Colorado

If the recent trend holds, Bushtit in Colorado is projected to rise about 56% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.00–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±178.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+56%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.29Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±178.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bushtit in Colorado is projected to rise about 56% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.29 (95% range 0.00–0.72). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±178.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.280.000.71
20260.280.000.71
20270.280.000.71
20280.290.000.71
20290.290.000.72

Bushtit Survey Routes in Colorado

Routes recording Bushtit in Colorado.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Animas 21420172005
Delta1220211977
Basin1220232002
Ludlow1020092006
Cortez1020081989
Fruita820002000
Animas820041996
Lay720042004
Rosevale620242024
Mount Evans420082001
Powderhorn420052005
Gribbles Prk420132007
Moon Pass420142003
Mesaverde Np320231996
Buford320242024
Angora320222000
Douglas Pass220241985
Falfa220241987
Wray Gulch220091996
Mcphee Res.220072001
Walsenburg220231996
Deadman Rd.220112011
Thomasville219931993
Pinon220242013
Cokedale220231995

Bushtit Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.