BirdAnalyst
Species · Nevada · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bushtit Population Trend in Nevada

All statesGeneralists

Bushtit in Nevada has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1993.

-29%Since 1993TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bushtit Trends in NevadaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bushtit in Nevada. See the full index history below.

Bushtit Population Forecast in Nevada

If the recent trend holds, Bushtit in Nevada is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 0.50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±134.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.38Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±134.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bushtit in Nevada is projected to fall about 24% by 2029 — from 0.50 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.38 (95% range 0.00–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±134.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.390.001.2
20260.390.001.2
20270.390.001.2
20280.380.001.2
20290.380.001.2

Bushtit Survey Routes in Nevada

Routes recording Bushtit in Nevada.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hawthorne2420011999
Meadow Vally720242021
Fish Creek620211997
Carson River620022002
Humboldt Nf520062005
Willis520241996
Ranchogrande420181992
Jarbidge420151997
Walker Can320131974
Gardnerville319991998
Chimney Res.320232015
Sand Pass220222022
Cortez219741974
Ruby Valley 2220102004
Minerva219931993
Hiko219981998
Bald Mtn.220242024
Austin120182018
Illipah120151992
Nelson119951995

Bushtit Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahonew-mexicooregontexasutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.