BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bushtit Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGeneralists

Bushtit in New Mexico has edged down: down 12% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-12%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bushtit Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bushtit in New Mexico. See the full index history below.

Bushtit Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Bushtit in New Mexico is projected to rise about 46% by 2029 — from 0.89 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+46%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±108%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bushtit in New Mexico is projected to rise about 46% by 2029 — from 0.89 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.002.8
20261.30.002.8
20271.30.002.8
20281.30.002.8
20291.30.002.8

Bushtit Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Bushtit in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
La Cienega4920221969
Farmington2019831983
Pecos1920171975
Carrizozo1120241980
Red Rock1120161996
Emory Pass1020241993
Claunch 2920242002
Capitan Mtn.820171999
Ojo Sarco620131968
Angel Fire 2520242006
Claunch420001982
Variadero420211996
Sabinoso420191982
Horse Spgs320221991
Mt. Taylor320041999
Gallinas320211992
Reserve320231993
Aztec319881988
Salt Lake 2220222002
Wagon Mound219781978
Fence Lake220221993
Cloudcroft220231981
La Plata 2220162014
Mcgaffey220231994
Vicks Peak220241992

Bushtit Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.