BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bushtit Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Bushtit in Texas has held roughly steady: up 7% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+7%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bushtit Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bushtit in Texas. See the full index history below.

Bushtit Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Bushtit in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±181.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±181.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bushtit in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±181.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.100.000.28
20260.100.000.28
20270.100.000.28
20280.100.000.28
20290.100.000.28

Bushtit Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Bushtit in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bear Mtn1320241988
Dove Mtn.1020042004
Pear Valley920102006
Childress819881988
Montell619951995
Valentine619851971
Clarendon619691969
Ft. Davis520232004
Ft. Stockton520162004
Agua Nueva320102004
Boerne320101996
Leakey320241994
Cottonwood320152015
Devils R Cyn319951995
Chisos Basin220181998
Dripping Spg220131996
Utopia220051969
Harper220152005
San Saba220061992
Winchell220092009
Longfellow220221995
Ozona220071999
Marfa120212021
Pumpville120062006
Thornton119821982

Bushtit Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.