BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bushtit Population Trend in Texas

All statesForest birds

Bushtit in Texas has held roughly steady: up 9% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+9%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bushtit Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bushtit in Texas. See the full index history below.

Bushtit Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Bushtit in Texas is projected to rise about 68% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±145%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+68%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±145%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bushtit in Texas is projected to rise about 68% by 2030 — from 0.06 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.28). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±145%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.100.000.28
20270.100.000.28
20280.100.000.28
20290.100.000.28
20300.100.000.28

Bushtit Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Bushtit in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dove Mtn.1020042004
Pear Valley920102006
Childress819881988
Montell619951995
Valentine619851971
Clarendon619691969
Ft. Davis520232004
Ft. Stockton520162004
Marfa420252021
Agua Nueva320102004
Boerne320101996
Leakey320241994
Bear Mtn320251988
Cottonwood320152015
Chisos Basin220181998
Dripping Spg220131996
Utopia220051969
Harper220152005
San Saba220061992
Winchell220092009
Devils R Cyn220251995
Longfellow220221995
Ozona220071999
Pumpville120062006
Thornton119821982

Bushtit Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahonevadanew-mexicooregonutahwashingtonwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.