BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bushtit Population Trend in Washington

All statesGeneralists

Bushtit in Washington has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-37%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Bushtit Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bushtit in Washington. See the full index history below.

Bushtit Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Bushtit in Washington is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 0.42 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-60%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bushtit in Washington is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 0.42 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.200.000.93
20260.200.000.92
20270.190.000.91
20280.180.000.90
20290.170.000.90

Bushtit Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Bushtit in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Issaquah1319861972
Camas1220051977
Ozette1019941994
Vashon Is.820241996
Deception720171993
Everett720241976
Mendota 2619971989
Kamilche519951978
Index519701968
Bunker Hill520101969
Rainier520171994
Ronald419911991
Ilwaco420231980
Pe Ell420161993
Mendota319881977
Mendota 3320242006
Port Angeles220241980
Warm Beach220131970
Newhalem220061980
Twisp219961996
Cougar219911991
Kendall220241986
Raymond220212005
Warm Beach 2220242018
Carnation220181988

Bushtit Population Trend in Other States

arizonacaliforniacoloradoidahonevadanew-mexicooregontexasutahwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.