BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bushtit In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Bushtit in Chihuahuan Desert has held roughly steady: up 3% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+3%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bushtit in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Bushtit In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bushtit in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.84 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±587.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.84Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±587.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bushtit in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.84 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±587.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.830.001.9
20260.830.001.9
20270.830.001.9
20280.840.001.9
20290.840.001.9

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Bushtit in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bear MtnTEXAS132024
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO112024
Red RockNEW-MEXICO112016
Dove Mtn.TEXAS102004
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO82017
ValentineTEXAS61985
Ft. StocktonTEXAS52016
Ft. DavisTEXAS52023
Devils R CynTEXAS31995
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO22023
QueenNEW-MEXICO22017
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO22001
LongfellowTEXAS22022
OzonaTEXAS22007
Chisos BasinTEXAS22018
PinonNEW-MEXICO12024
ComstockTEXAS11997
MarfaTEXAS12021
PumpvilleTEXAS12006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.