BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Bushtit In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertForest birds

Bushtit in Chihuahuan Desert has edged up: up 19% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+19%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bushtit in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Bushtit In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bushtit in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 139% by 2030 — from 0.33 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.80 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±452.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+139%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.80Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±452.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bushtit in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 139% by 2030 — from 0.33 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.80 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±452.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.790.001.9
20270.790.001.9
20280.790.001.9
20290.790.001.9
20300.800.001.9

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Bushtit in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red RockNEW-MEXICO112016
Dove Mtn.TEXAS102004
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO82017
ValentineTEXAS61985
Ft. StocktonTEXAS52016
Ft. DavisTEXAS52023
MarfaTEXAS42025
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO32025
Bear MtnTEXAS32025
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO22023
QueenNEW-MEXICO22017
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO22001
LongfellowTEXAS22022
OzonaTEXAS22007
Devils R CynTEXAS22025
Chisos BasinTEXAS22018
PinonNEW-MEXICO12024
ComstockTEXAS11997
PumpvilleTEXAS12006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.