BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bushtit In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGeneralists

Bushtit in Great Basin has declined: down 32% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-32%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bushtit in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Bushtit In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bushtit in Great Basin is projected to rise about 128% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.05–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±216.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+128%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.36Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.05–0.6795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±216.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bushtit in Great Basin is projected to rise about 128% by 2029 — from 0.16 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.36 (95% range 0.05–0.67). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±216.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.350.030.66
20260.350.040.66
20270.350.040.66
20280.350.040.67
20290.360.050.67

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Bushtit in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HawthorneNEVADA242001
CedarvilleCALIFORNIA122017
HackamoreCALIFORNIA122003
NubieberCALIFORNIA112007
MikkaloOREGON102002
Deep SpringsCALIFORNIA82022
Mt HoodOREGON82014
Fish LakeOREGON82021
Trout CreekOREGON82021
MadelineCALIFORNIA71997
Silver CityIDAHO72002
Meadow VallyNEVADA72024
IngallsCALIFORNIA61990
LikelyCALIFORNIA61995
Clear Lk ResCALIFORNIA62004
BartleCALIFORNIA62021
Fall River MillsCALIFORNIA62011
Iron GateCALIFORNIA62019
Fish CreekNEVADA62021
Carson RiverNEVADA62002
WagontireOREGON62004
Alvord LakeOREGON62005
Camp ShermanOREGON61983
Big PineCALIFORNIA52007
Davis CreekCALIFORNIA51980

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.