BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bushtit In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGeneralists

Bushtit in Northern Rockies has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

-70%Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Bushtit has fallen sharply in Northern Rockies: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Bushtit In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bushtit in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 53% by 2028 — from 0.06 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-53%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±57.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bushtit in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 53% by 2028 — from 0.06 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.040.000.22
20250.040.000.22
20260.030.000.21
20270.030.000.21
20280.030.000.21

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Bushtit in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OchocoOREGON122014
Eagle RockOREGON81977
LayCOLORADO72004
MadrasOREGON52023
Mtn ViewWYOMING51980
Summit PrOREGON31982
MonumentOREGON32022
BridgeportOREGON22011
TwickenhamOREGON22023
MaybellCOLORADO12004
Browns ParkCOLORADO12005
Saleratus CrUTAH12004
DiamondvilleWYOMING11979
Rock SpringsWYOMING12012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.