BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Bushtit In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauGeneralists

Bushtit in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has declined: down 45% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-45%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
120Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Bushtit in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Bushtit In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Bushtit in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 0.73 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.52Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±71.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Bushtit in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 0.73 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.52 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±71.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.530.001.5
20260.530.001.5
20270.530.001.5
20280.530.001.5
20290.520.001.5

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Bushtit in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
La CienegaNEW-MEXICO492022
ShivwitzUTAH232024
Navajo LakeUTAH221969
Rose WellsARIZONA211969
FarmingtonNEW-MEXICO201983
PecosNEW-MEXICO192017
ZeniffARIZONA171984
Animas 2COLORADO142017
La Sal 2UTAH132006
DeltaCOLORADO122021
BasinCOLORADO122023
House RockARIZONA102022
CortezCOLORADO102008
LudlowCOLORADO102009
FerronUTAH102009
La Sal 3UTAH102024
CanyonlandsUTAH102006
Claunch 2NEW-MEXICO92024
FruitaCOLORADO82000
AnimasCOLORADO82004
Fish Lake NfUTAH82024
FayetteUTAH82006
ToroweapARIZONA62024
Castle ButteARIZONA61993
RosevaleCOLORADO62024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.